WASHINGTON — Trump waived the Jones Act for foreign tankers on Tuesday, betting that more ships could break the oil price spiral. Brent crude hit $96.73 anyway. Up 1.9 percent.

The century-old shipping law requires U.S.-flagged vessels for domestic cargo. Trump suspended it for 90 days, opening American ports to any tanker that can dock. The move was supposed to flood markets with cheaper crude.

It didn't work.

What the waiver actually changes

Foreign tankers can now carry oil between U.S. ports without switching to American ships. That should cut transport costs and speed deliveries. In theory.

But the real bottleneck isn't shipping rules. It's crude supply.

"You can't waive your way out of a supply shock," said Robert McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group and former White House energy advisor. "The Jones Act was never the constraint here."

The Iran war has knocked 3.2 million barrels per day off global markets since February. That's Iran's entire export capacity, plus collateral damage from attacks on regional infrastructure. No amount of shipping flexibility replaces those barrels.

WTI crude closed at $92.89, up $1.60. Traders are pricing in scarcity, not shipping costs.

Why this round is different

The waiver does help on the margins. U.S. refineries can now source crude more flexibly, and product deliveries between coastal regions should speed up. Energy Secretary Doug Burgum called it "removing regulatory barriers when Americans need relief."

But relief is relative.

Previous Jones Act waivers came during hurricanes or refinery outages — temporary disruptions to normal supply chains. This time, the disruption is geopolitical and open-ended. More ships can't solve a war.

The American Petroleum Institute supported the waiver but warned against expecting miracles. "This helps optimize our existing supply chains," said API President Mike Sommers. "It doesn't create new oil."

That's the problem Trump faces heading into summer driving season.

The political math is uncomfortable

Gasoline futures jumped to $3.095 per gallon Tuesday, up 25 cents in two weeks. Heating oil surged 2.45 percent to $3.845 per gallon.

Trump promised to "drill, baby, drill" his way to $50 oil. Instead, prices have doubled since he took office in January. The Iran war explains most of that surge, but voters see pump prices, not geopolitical complexity.

The waiver could accelerate crude flows to refineries that have been running below capacity due to supply constraints. ExxonMobil's Beaumont refinery and Chevron's Richmond facility have both reduced runs in recent weeks, citing crude availability issues.

"We're not crude-constrained because of Jones Act restrictions," said one refinery executive who requested anonymity. "We're crude-constrained because half the Middle East is on fire."

What the oil majors are watching

The executive noted that his company has been sourcing more Canadian heavy crude and Venezuelan oil under Treasury licenses. But those sources can't fully replace lost Iranian and regional production.

International Energy Agency data shows global spare capacity has fallen to 1.8 million barrels per day, the lowest since 2008. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are pumping near maximum levels. Russia's production remains under sanctions pressure.

Trump's team is betting the waiver shows action on energy costs, even if the impact proves limited. The administration has few other tools beyond diplomatic pressure for a ceasefire — which Trump hinted could come "this week" in comments to Fox News Tuesday.

But energy analysts doubt any near-term Iran deal would immediately restore oil flows.

The July deadline looms

Even if fighting stopped tomorrow, damaged infrastructure would take months to repair. Insurance and shipping companies would need time to resume Iranian operations.

The Jones Act waiver expires July 15, just as summer driving season peaks. If oil prices haven't fallen by then, Trump faces a choice: extend the waiver and admit the original problem persists, or let it expire and face blame for any subsequent price spike.

Congressional Democrats are already questioning the move. Senator Elizabeth Warren called it "corporate welfare for Big Oil disguised as consumer relief." She noted that U.S. tanker companies opposed the waiver, fearing lost business to foreign competitors.

The Maritime Workers Union echoed those concerns, warning that temporary waivers often become permanent policy shifts.

Oil markets will test whether increased shipping flexibility can offset tight crude supplies. Early indicators aren't promising — futures curves remain steep, suggesting traders expect sustained high prices.

The next major catalyst comes Thursday, when OPEC+ ministers meet virtually to discuss production quotas. Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman has signaled no immediate output increases, citing spare capacity constraints.

Iran's oil exports, meanwhile, remain at zero for the seventh consecutive week. Until that changes — through diplomacy or military victory — shipping waivers won't solve America's energy price problem.

Trump's Iran envoy Brian Hook flies to Riyadh on Friday for talks with Saudi officials. The agenda: exploring whether increased Saudi production could cushion any eventual Iran deal.