NEW DELHI — The tankers are already turning around. Indian refiners have 72 hours to cut off 180,000 barrels per day of Iranian crude as Washington's final waiver expires Sunday at midnight.

No extension coming. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent made that clear Wednesday.

Brent crude spiked 3.2% to $94.40 Friday as traders calculated the squeeze. The Strait of Hormuz remains a mess, shipping costs are climbing, and now India loses its cheapest heavy crude supplier.

But here's what energy planners in New Delhi decided: Russian oil stays. Iranian oil goes.

The math that hurts

Bessent's waiver covered crude already loaded on tankers before March 20. "All that has been used," he said at the White House. Done.

Indian refiners imported 5.4 million barrels under that waiver, according to Kpler data. Three weeks of normal Iranian flows before this crisis exploded. Iran supplied 4% of India's crude imports in 2025 — small percentage, big leverage for price negotiations.

Now that leverage disappears. Sunday.

Russian crude plays by different rules

Russian oil isn't banned outright. Specific entities, vessels, payment channels — those are sanctioned. Indian buyers who can navigate the compliance maze keep buying.

"Russian crude will remain central to India's energy basket," said Sumit Ritolia, oil markets manager at Kpler. "But with tighter compliance requirements."

Indian refiners processed 1.6 million barrels per day of Russian crude in March. Moscow became their largest supplier. That flow continues, though buyers must dodge sanctioned tankers and shell companies.

The headache: proving clean supply chains when Russian crude changes hands four times before reaching Indian ports.

Hormuz timing couldn't be worse

Iranian naval forces have been disrupting Strait shipping lanes since February. Tankers take the long route around Africa now. That adds 15-20 days to delivery times and $2-3 per barrel in shipping costs.

For Indian refiners already paying premiums for non-Iranian crude, the numbers get ugly fast.

"India will need to recalibrate its crude sourcing strategy," Ritolia said. More Saudi, Iraqi, UAE crude. Higher prices across the board.

What refiners are doing right now

Reliance Industries stopped booking Iranian crude in March. State-owned Indian Oil Corp shifted to Iraqi barrels to fill the gap.

But replacement crude costs more. Iraqi Basra Heavy trades at $2-4 premium to Iranian Heavy, industry sources said. For 180,000 barrels daily, that's $10-20 million monthly in extra costs.

Some refiners are loading up on Russian Urals crude to offset Iranian losses. Urals trades at steep discounts — often $15-20 below Brent — making it attractive despite compliance paperwork.

The discount reflects Western sanctions impact. Also Indian buyers' willingness to handle complex payment arrangements.

Payment channels slam shut

Iranian crude purchases required rupee payments through select Indian banks. That mechanism bypassed dollar-based sanctions. Those channels close Sunday.

Russian crude payments remain possible through non-sanctioned banks. But the list shrinks monthly as Washington expands entity sanctions.

Indian refiners increasingly use Chinese yuan or UAE dirhams for Russian purchases. Avoids dollar exposure entirely. The currency juggling adds costs but keeps oil flowing.

Energy security trumps everything

India imports 85% of its crude oil needs — about 5 million barrels daily. Energy security beats sanctions compliance in New Delhi's calculations.

That explains why Russian crude imports actually increased 12% in the first quarter despite Western pressure. Indian officials argue they're buying from all available sources to keep domestic fuel prices stable.

The Iranian cutoff removes one supplier. Doesn't change the fundamental math. India needs cheap crude. Russia provides it.

Monday's reality

Iranian tankers carrying crude to India will divert to Chinese ports after Sunday's deadline. China absorbs roughly 1.2 million barrels daily of Iranian crude despite sanctions.

Indian refiners will replace Iranian Heavy with similar high-sulfur grades from Iraq and Saudi Arabia. The transition was planned weeks ago, industry executives said.

But costs hit immediately. Indian Oil Corp estimates an additional $180 million annually in crude procurement costs without Iranian barrels.

Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri meets Saudi Aramco officials in New Delhi on Tuesday. Additional supply contracts expected. Pricing remains under negotiation.

Washington's message is clear: Iran's oil revenue streams are closing, one waiver at a time. For India, that means paying more for energy security in an already expensive market.