PARIS — Intelligence officials from the United States and Israel are increasingly voicing opposition to the ongoing military campaign against Iran as the conflict enters its second month, with leaked assessments questioning both the strategic wisdom and economic consequences of the February strikes.

The war has already produced devastating impacts on global energy markets, with Brent crude surging to $140 per barrel and triggering inflationary pressures across European economies still recovering from previous geopolitical shocks.

Intelligence Community Pushback

Former CIA deputy director Sarah Mitchell, now at Georgetown University's Security Studies Program, told The Meridian that internal dissent has reached unprecedented levels. "What we're seeing is a complete breakdown of the usual intelligence-policy consensus that guided previous Middle East interventions," Mitchell said.

The February strikes targeted Iran's Abadan and Isfahan refineries, destroying approximately 40 percent of the country's processing capacity. However, intelligence assessments now suggest these operations have strengthened rather than weakened Iranian resolve to accelerate nuclear development.

"The strategic calculus was fundamentally flawed from the beginning," said Dr. James Rothenberg, former National Security Council Iran director under three administrations. "We've created exactly the scenario we sought to prevent — a cornered regime with nothing left to lose."

Economic Consequences Mount

The conflict has triggered the most severe energy crisis since the 1979 Iranian Revolution. European Union imports of Iranian oil, which averaged 1.2 million barrels daily before the war, have ceased entirely. Germany's DAX index has fallen 23 percent since February, while France's CAC 40 dropped 19 percent.

Central banks across the eurozone face impossible choices between fighting inflation and supporting growth. The European Central Bank's emergency meeting last week resulted in a 75 basis point rate increase, the largest single hike in the institution's history.

Chinese refineries, meanwhile, have quietly increased Iranian crude purchases through third-party vessels, providing Tehran with alternative revenue streams that partially offset Western sanctions. Beijing's strategic petroleum reserves have grown by an estimated 45 million barrels since the conflict began.

Regional Implications Expand

The war's ripple effects extend far beyond energy markets. Iraq's Shia-majority government faces mounting pressure to expel remaining US forces, while Lebanese Hezbollah has mobilized reserves along Israel's northern border. Jordan's King Abdullah cancelled a scheduled Washington visit, citing "regional security concerns."

Saudi Arabia has maintained studied neutrality despite American pressure to increase oil production. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's refusal to fill supply gaps represents a significant shift in US-Saudi relations, signaling Riyadh's unwillingness to bear economic costs for others' military adventures.

Intelligence Leaks Intensify

Unprecedented intelligence leaks suggest deep institutional opposition within both American and Israeli security establishments. Details of pre-war planning sessions, strategic assessments, and operational failures have appeared in major newspapers with unusual frequency and specificity.

Former Mossad analyst Rachel Cohen, writing in Haaretz, described the decision-making process as "divorced from empirical reality." Her account detailed heated exchanges between intelligence professionals and political leadership over targeting priorities and escalation scenarios.

What Comes Next

The conflict shows no signs of resolution as both sides dig in for prolonged confrontation. Iran has threatened to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty entirely, while maintaining oil export restrictions that keep global prices elevated.

American military planners privately acknowledge that current operations cannot achieve stated objectives without massive ground force deployment — an option that remains politically impossible given public war fatigue.

European leaders face growing domestic pressure to distance themselves from the conflict as energy costs squeeze household budgets and industrial competitiveness erodes. French President Macron's approval ratings have plummeted to 28 percent, while German Chancellor Scholz faces coalition pressure to pursue independent diplomatic initiatives.

The intelligence community's unprecedented public dissent suggests institutional constraints on further escalation, but whether political leadership will heed these warnings remains uncertain. Previous Middle Eastern conflicts demonstrate the difficulty of extracting from military commitments once momentum builds.

Readers seeking additional context on US-Iran relations should examine the diplomatic history that preceded these current hostilities.